There are now a lot of variables up in the air, and any one of them could sink this plan… quite literally.
One of our biggest risks is weather. From Boracay, we must sail west into open sea and the Tablas Strait. In the middle of the crossing, the winds can be much stronger than on land, and with over a hundred miles of fetch, the waves can be far larger than what our boat was designed for.
So to make the crossing, we’ll need to wait for the right weather window, and it’s quite possible that our weather window might not come at all. But we’re now about three-four days out from departure, and after a windy few days here, the forecast is beginning to look quite good for Tuesday :
We definitely don’t want to be caught out there with winds like this :
I’m also notice that winds die down in the afternoon. I’m not quite sure why, so there’s perhaps a good argument to wait until later in the day. However, we equally do not want to be caught out in shipping lanes after dark.
We have two route options. One is to island hop to Caluya, then Semirara, and on to Mindoro. This gives us bail out spots, but there’s also an argument to be made for heading north for a while and crossing a larger stretch of sea where the winds may be lighter, and the wind direction more from our stern.
At the end of the day, this is a risky trip. We want to get to Palawan, but our lives also depend on making good judgement calls. We’ll be making this one carefully.